Global Conflict Risk Index

The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) is an index of the statistical risk of violent conflict in the next 1-4 years and is exclusively based on quantitative indicators from open sources. With the assumption that structural conditions in a country are linked to the occurrence of violent conflict, the GCRI collects 24 variables in 5 dimensions (social, economic, security, political, geographical/environmental) and uses statistical regression models to calculate probability and intensity of violent conflict.

Note that - although the methodology was developed building on international expertise - no expert judgement or analysis is used in the 6-monthly updates of the GCRI. It is a quantitative method that is purely based on data processing data.

The GCRI is based on open-source data and its results are published openly, along with the methodology, to encourage transparency in building an evidence-based baseline in conflict risk. Leading academic and scientific organisations are part of the methodology reference working group.


Additional Info

Dataset ID GCRI
Status Active
Spatial Coverage World
Mode Index
Data Type Statistical

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